Waves vs. Cycles in the Economy

Read More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975069-waves-solid-cycles-difference-he...

From Seeking Alpha:  "An unbiased read on the economic data shows some minor improvement but not nearly with enough emphasis or difference to suggest that the risks now are any different as when the year started. As my colleague Joe Calhoun and I were talking today, we even said the same thing at the same time, it is so very reminiscent of the period right after Bear Stearns in 2008. This is not to suggest the economy is nearly so bad now as then, only like then both markets and the global economy sustained a surprising (to the mainstream) and surprisingly heavy blow only to seemingly (on the surface) survive it with but minor damage. That led to an enormous outbreak of cautious optimism expressed no more clearly than by Ben Bernanke as late as June 2008:

• "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so."

That view dominated the FOMC discussions of that time."